Scenarios for global financial sector development: greening, digitalisation, institutionalisation

Abstract

Purpose. Based on the generalisation of the scenarios for the development of the global financial architecture, to provide additional arguments that need to be taken into account in the theoretical and practical aspects of interaction of countries within the global financial sector (GFS).

Results. The authors summarised the key financial and climate scenarios for the development of the GFS; demonstrated the need for functional and organisational reform of the interaction of states with international financial organisations. Emphasised the feasibility of taking into account institutional maturity, diversification, fragmentation and convergence in the process of improving the GFS architecture. Financial nationalism is identified among the current determinants of the development of the GFS along with legal, technological, knowledge and environmental blocks of factors. Outlined that institutional diversification should involve the integration of both purely specialised players in the financial sector (regional development banks, creditor clubs, national welfare funds) and private sector players. It is noted that the importance of Asian countries in the GFS is expected to increase due to the share of developed countries with a potential change of leader.

Scientific novelty. It has been further developed the argumentation of immanent features of the formation of a qualitatively new, polycentric model of the international financial order, the formation of which will occur through the processes of green and digital transformations, which have the greatest impact on changes in the global financial architecture by introducing institutional innovations.

Practical value. The use of the research results will allow national governments and infrastructure participants in the global financial system to formulate more effective competitive behaviour strategies. The world economy, due to combining of financial mechanisms with the effective use of digitalisation to increase the efficiency of the global financial sector, will be able to benefit from improved regulation of global economic activity in the context of solving global environmental problems, in particular, minimising the threat of losing up to 2/3 of global GDP.